To be clear, not all species will suffer equally from climate change. In fact, there are some species that will be resilient, and others that will even benefit from a warming world. Primary among the beneficiaries are plants in the northern areas of Europe, Asia, and North America (Zabel et al., 2014), and to a lesser extent in southern South America and New Zealand. In these areas, plants will benefit from longer growing seasons (earlier springs and shorter winters) and increased CO2 concentrations (which will increase photosynthesis rates).
Generalist species with high genetic diversity and that reproduce quickly are likely to benefit from climate change. Many species that exhibit these traits carry diseases and are agricultural pests.
Some tropical species may thrive as their habitats become hotter and wetter. Species with high genetic diversity that reproduce quickly (allowing for rapid adaption to environmental changes) are also likely to benefit. Unfortunately, many species that exhibit these traits carry diseases (Box 10.6.1) and are agricultural pests (Serdeczny et al., 2017). For example, populations of the coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei)—Africa’s most notorious coffee pest—are expected to greatly increase in a warmer world (Jaramillo et al., 2011). This growing threat is particularly worrying given that higher temperatures have already reduced coffee harvests in countries such as Tanzania by as much as 50% (Craparo et al., 2015).
Box 10.6.1 Habitat Alteration, Climate Change, and Mosquito-Borne Diseases
Kevin Njabo
Center for Tropical Research,
UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
With unprecedented climate change looming, mosquito-borne diseases, including malaria and dengue fever, will impact humans and wildlife in novel and unpredictable ways. While climate change is global in nature, changes due to habitat alteration are occurring more rapidly on a local scale, and are having significant effects on mosquito-borne diseases (Figure 1.6.1). For example, destruction of Peruvian rainforests unleashed more than 120,000 cases of malaria in the late 1990s, compared to fewer than 150 nine years earlier (Vitor et al., 2006).
One group of species currently threatened with extinction that may benefit from a warmer world is marine turtles. Researchers working on Cabo Verde speculate that the island nation’s loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta VU) populations will benefit from an increasing female-biased sex ratio (as expected under warmer conditions) given that a single male can breed with several females (Laloë et al., 2014). However, the researchers note that this population requires continued monitoring as insurance against demographic stochasticity (Section 8.7.2) that may become a larger threat under climate change.
Climate change has the potential to greatly restructure the world’s ecosystems, ecosystem services, and national economies.